Let’s talk about Carney, OTHR, IFM, and some other things I didn’t put in a newsletter

Hello everyone. I hope everyone is enjoying their Tuesday. I apologize for the lack of posting. I have been dealing with a nasty flu, so I’ve been knocked down the last few days.

Luckily I’m feeling better today, and ready to catch up on everything that has happened. It’s been a long weekend, full of a lot lol, including some announcements today.

This won’t be a newsletter as you know it, instead I’m just gonna go on a bit of a ramble on things and then cover smaller shit in next weeks newsletter. Thank you to the people who reached out in concern lol. I promise I’m on the road to recovery from this nasty virus.

Of course most of the news has to do with Prime Minister Carney’s recent trips to Europe, where a lot was said and a lot kept silent. The man has been busy the last few days, hitting up France and London, as well as doing numerous calls the last few days with European leaders.

We also got a small update to the IFM project! Something that I called would happen, but didn’t expect so quickly. The RFI has been changed to now remove the option to fire on the move as a hard requirement.

this requirement effectively put the RCH as the only option available for the project. It’s removal now open the doors, even if unlikely to several other systems to now jump in to the fray.

This was of course expected. If you follow me, there was no way this requirement was going to last the whole way through given the obvious bias to the presented.

It’s understandable that someone said that this was a bit too on the nose and said it was best to move it, but the ability of the move itself is also debateable on it’s effectiveness.

That’s of course a small update to an otherwise busy week. There’s a lot to go over with Carneys trip to Europe. We not only saw him meet with Macron, but we also got some hints on what Carneys full defence policy might look like.

Before officially meeting Macron though, Carney did take a number of calls with other European officials including both Ursula von der Leyen and Zelenskyy that led to a very interesting readout.

Immediately after the call, Zelenskyy would go to Twitter to discuss what was talked about. Along with the normal talks about partnership, countering Russia and the rules-based order, Zelenskyy made a sneaky reference to other things, more specifically on defence production.

The immediate talk on defence cooperation shouldn’t be a huge surprise. Carney has made it known quite extensively for his desire to spend money in Canada through expanding Canadas domestic defence industry.

If you were around on the weekend, especially on Twitter, you would’ve seen a bit of a hype. I am also guilty of memeing about this.

Now, does this actually mean anything? Well, that’s a bit hard to say. It’s quite clear what Zelensky brought up, but I don’t think that Carney was the one asking for long-range missiles. While there is no doubt that this is a cool idea, I do think that this is mostly just highlighting Ukraine strengths.

Carney making Ukraine one of his first conversations does go a long way. He also invited Zelensky to the G7 later this year, assuming that he is still Prime Minister that is.

I do believe there is room for cooperation between us, and I am curious to see where this relationship develops. It is quite clear that Carney sees Ukraine as a policy objective.

While we would all love to see the Canadian Neptune, I don’t think that’s what we will bend up ever seeing, though cooperation on unmanned systems? That’s a bit more reasonable.

The first pick stop on Carneys trip was Paris, where he met with President Macron. This was his first trip as Prime Minister, an occasion usually reserved for visiting the United States before anything. It speaks a lot to what Carney views as his Geopolitical allies in the face of American aggression.

This was the bigger of the two meetings, with Carney and Macron holding a joint presser together. Both men have a banking background, and a history, as many point out.

That makes these kinds of trips even more important, and why you shouldn’t jump into the idea that just because he is known, that there is similarity in Carney the Banker and Carney the Prime Minister.

This is him reintroducing himself to the wider European theatre, while also getting a chance to show himself off as a statesman before the next election, two very important things in light of the current situation for him.

Highlights of this meeting include the launch of a new bilateral partnership on intelligence and security, deepening economic ties in AI, Clean Energy, and Critical minerals, and reaffirming support for Ukraine.

All very standard, and no major wins coming out of it, but we did get a presser that was full of interesting information regarding Carneys defence policy, and his current mentality. Let’s go through them.

• To follow up from last week, Carney had asked for a review of the F35 past a certain number, says there is commitment to a number of systems.

• Blair apparently raised the issue to him first, not the other way around.

• No mention of options, but acknowledges Rafale

• This isn’t a commitment to cut, just doing ‘Due-Diligence’

• Spoke with Macron about ReArm Europe, primarily in Canadian companies taking part and setting up Canada as a member of the supply chain.

• Talked a lot about Domestic Production and building Canada as a supplier

Obviously this is a lot of repeat fr the previous discussions on the F35. We have confirmation that Blair raised the issue first, and Carney in turn asked him to investigate further. This is a shift from before, where Carney was painted as the instigator of the question.

We also once again see domestic supply play a big part of Carneys defence policy. He not only raised the issue with Macron, but also with Leyen, particularly involving ReArm Europe.

I will give credit, as those who have read my previous months piece on production know I have long advocated for Canada to be a safe supply for our allies. I am in fact over joyed to hear that this kind of thing was brought up by our own Prime Minister.

Of course, there is the risk that focussing on domestic production might produce ill effect for CAF. We don’t want to be in a situation where we are buying subpar equipment or the stuff that we don’t want just to facilitate the domestic production.

However, being able to tap into the ReArm Europe fund would be a massive financial incentive for Canada to jump on. If Canada could hypothetically partner with a company like MBDA, as an example, We could start to make the argument that we could help supply our European allies by providing an offshore space that is far more protected from conflict, and able to upscale to greater amounts than individual European countries could do by themselves.

Of course, if you wanna learn more, I highly recommend that you go read my piece on production. I go into much more detail there.

The day after Carney was in Paris he would travel to London where he will meet with Prime Minister Starmer and the King. This meeting lacked the fanfare of the French visit, with no joint presser and minimal media presence compared to the day before.

Certainly, It did not make Starmer look better to Canadians after what many of us saw as a weak response to Trump’s indication. Indeed, Starmer has come across quite dismissive of Canada and has openly stated that the friendship with the United States takes priority.

Compared to the French meeting, I would honestly say that this felt quite disappointed. While there was basically the same discussions it didn’t feel like there was quite the same level of care.

That isn’t me going to freak out like some others have but it definitely had a different tone compared to the other one. There wasn’t much coming out of this that I can openly discuss.

After his trip to Europe, Carney would be in the Iqaluit today to make several major announcements, as well as meet with the Premier of Nunuvat PJ Akeeagok.

This circular loop around the Atlantic and in turn the Arctic goes to show which area is Carney will prioritize for his foreign policy. Setting the Arctic as his first major domestic stop shows to me that there is an inherent want to be actively involved.

Indeed, we had several announcements today although many of them didn’t come with too much details. We did get one big one.

Canada will be joining Australia in producing a Canadian version of the Jindalee Operational Radar Network at a cost of six billion dollars. This will be one of two new radar systems, covering the A-OTHR project. We still have the P-OTHR for Arctic coverage.

This is a major announcement that I know has been in the works for a while. There is a pressing need to get this radar system in service by 2030, and going with a COTS design like JORN, which has been in continuous development for forty years, is a great way to quickly achieve that goal.

While they did not announce the actual contract recipient It’s almost guaranteed that it will be BAE, who is currently working with the Aussies on their own Phase 8 upgrades.

It’s quite likely this will be the last major announcement before an election is called. There is a chance for more, but I’m not holding out hope.

We also got about 700 million in other announcements on top of this today. These include:

• $420 million to protect our sovereignty across land, air, and sea. With an expansion of its Northern and Arctic operations and training exercises, and the deployment of more personnel

• $94 million to upgrade power plants in Cambridge Bay, Gjoa Haven, Igloolik, and Iqaluit. These important energy upgrades will ensure that Nunavut communities have access to safe and dependable power.

• Almost $74 million to improve critical housing infrastructure, accelerate housing development, and help meet the growing demand for affordable housing.

• Almost $66 million to build, renovate, and repair hundreds more homes across Nunavut, including for Indigenous Peoples and underserved groups.

• $20 million to help the Nunavut Nukkiksautiit Corporation complete the first phase of the development of its hydroelectricity facility which will, once complete, provide renewable energy security and create jobs across Nunavut.

Most of this money has not actually been confirmed for what it will be used for, primarily the 420 million. There is talk that more will be discussed at a later date

This money isn’t new either. It is coming primarily from NORAD modernization. This is more announcing the actual contract winner. There was an extensive Q&A afterward that I will link to as I spoke about it at the time it was happening on Twitter

These announcements are obviously welcome and it is very clear from Carney‘s words that there is a need to spend more on defence, as well as exceed the current 2030 timeline for 2%

In fact, I think we’re at the pace where we will likely see a 2028 number somewhere down the line. I think that’s a reasonable place to be. It is also close enough to the 2027 extreme timeline that it doesn’t feel too much of a downside.

Overall, it’s been a very busy weekend… on the weekend where I decide to catch a really nasty flu! I apologize for not having the newsletter and I apologize for taking so long to get to this.

I also apologize for the dip in quality on this one. It’s taking me about six hours to write this which is far beyond the usual hour It takes me to write these things.

So thank to everybody for being understanding and for checking in on me. I do really appreciate it. Usually, I would put some big analysis, but I’m going to be honest. I’m just not in the mood.

Perhaps I’ll discuss this a bit more later this week or in the comments if people decide to ask me 100 questions!