Let's Talk about this week

Its going to be another busy one...

I've been taking a slight break this week, as many of you have pointed out to me. I do apologize for what some see as a lack of content. It is not my intent to deprive anyone of my wonderful writing.

I decided to take it a bit slower this week primarily because of what's coming up. As many of you know this upcoming week is set to be a very busy one.

Between both the EU-Canada summit, where defence is set to take a priority and the NATO summit, this week is not looking kind to me. I will have my hands full with a very busy, very news filled beginning of the week.

For those that don't know, the EU-Canada Summit will take place on Monday the 23rd while the NATO summit takes place right after on the 24th and 25th. There will be big things shown off at both summits.

I will be doing another livethread for both summits. Even if they don't turn out super big like the last one, I am confident there will be enough to justify them.

The NATO livethread will be one for both days, so make sure to keep up with it. That is unless fay one proves to be a monumental day that makes it as long as the 2% livethread.

As to what I expect of both? Well we have an idea of what the Canada-EU summit will look like. We know that a new Sevurity pact will be signed, and while details are scarce, I have heard some things on what that will look like.

It won't be the final agreement. That will be subject to further negotiations. It will however set the stage for Canada to not only take part in Readiness 2040 as a supplier but to also access the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument.

For those of you who don't know SAFE is the $150 billion loan program attached to Readiness 2030 that aims to help member states fund purchases of needed equipment under joint-procurement partnerships. These loans would be up to a maximum of 45 years. The principal repayments might also benefit from a grace period of 10 years, in principle.

This would include everything for munitions, drones and artillery up to more complex things such as Artifical Intelligence, infrastructure and space-based assets. For a brief window countries who submit a proper plan will be able to access this funding individually for up to the next year.

This one year period might be where Canda is looking to enter so quickly. The want is to be able to access this funding as if we were a member state, opening up that $150 billion in capital to help fund a multitude of upcoming procurements.

For the European side of things Canada having access to these funds also provides a benefit to them. If you take the example of Germany the ability of Canada to take part in Readiness 2030 means they can dangle this kind of joint-procurement for projects like the Canadian Patrol Submarine.

For a project in the 10s of billions being able to access cheap, long-duration loans as part of that is an inherent advantage, especislly when your competition is offering similar financial benefits.

While we don't know the type of agreement that will be signed, its expected to be the most comprehensive so far between the EU and another state, at least according to officials on the EU side of things.

This could also include further cooperation in the Arctic, joint-training opportunities, and most importantly the ratification process for CETA, something Canada has been very eager to get done.

As for NATO? That is one area that I have yet to crack. What I have heard is that Canada will support a 5% agreement with a timeline of 2032. This will put it firmly in the category of countries looking to get to that target quicker.

The other date I have heard, and sponsored by the likes of the UK is 2035. There are also a handful like Spain who outright reject the 5% at this time.

Supporting the 2032 timeline is seen as an attempt to win favour with allies, showing Canada's seriousness and commitment to defence and the alliance by arguing for thr quickest timeline widely agreed to.

Of course I have heard some rumble of 2030 but that timeline does not seem to be realistically expected or widely supported by the vast majority of the alliance. If it came to that would we agree? Perhaps. I don't think it would eb a no with this current government.

There will be a big announcement at the summit beyond 5%. What is that? I don't know. Whoever does is keeping themselves quiet and sadly the Carney government is actually quite good at keeping indo under wraps, at least compared to his predecessor.

Submarines? Fighter jets? Icebreakers? At this point I can't say what the announcement will be. There are obviously several things in the pipeline that will be addressed in the coming weeks, big things, though it is up to the PMO to decide exactly what that will be.

This will either be a week of monumental news or a week of rehashed announcements. There will be no in-between in that regard. You will either see a lot, or we will all collectively disappointed.

Time will tell on that front.