Let's talk with Noah (11/03/25): Gripens, Bombardier, Twotter, Cyclones

Good Morning everyone!

I hope you're all doing good! Budget is tomorrow. That means its gonna be busy, so why not do a special 17 question AMA before I'm full of work to do!

You guys asked a lot this week, and I wanted to make sure I got all your questions done for this week! That was a lot, but im just happy everyone is still really engaged with this after two slow weeks!

As always you can ask your questions, and vote on others, over on our Slido page. It will be up until Monday! A lot of you sent stuff in DMs also but I prefer the stuff there as it can be voted on and also kept open to everyone. If you enjoy my content also consider supporting TNSR over on our Kofi!

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Q1. The decision to buy 88 f-35s predates our commitment of 2% of GDP. Given there will be more money, why are we limiting the discussion to yes or no on 88 F35s?

So this is the thing about the review. We don't know if this is an actual conversation or not. Keep in mind, we know nothing on this review.

We don't know the goals. We don't know what their exactly looking for. We don't know the timelines. We don't know the numbers. They could be looking at more than 88. I don't think they are, but we have no way to tell.

We know zero about it, and that's part of why (sorry Saab if I sounded a bit to mean the other week) I dislike it and how its being conducted. There is an arguement for numbers beyond 88, especially if we want to take a more definitive role in abroad.

88 is also a bit thin itself for four squadrons. We've done the studied though. We can make that work, but there is still an arguement to be made that more is needed.

But yeah, right now we have no clue what the government wants, what numbers they're thinking, and what the outcomes are expected to be. This isn't a competition so we have no documentation or evidence to go off of.

Also doesnt help when people are contradicting and such. It makes this stuff extremely difficult to discuss.

Q2. If we went with at least some number of Gripens in the Fighter Review do you think that would lead Canada into potentially joining the Swedish 6th gen program?

At the very least I would bloody well hope so! If its not then there would be a massive problem.

Q3. with LLAD, there's a lot out there, is there any talk about the sky ranger 30/35mm. Its a highly capable system and would fit nicely on a LAV 6

Ah you're thinking of Enduring Phase II! That will procure a VSHORAD solution for the Army, likely mounted onto the LAV. Thats still a few years out though and we don't know what's wanted from it besides a VSHORAD system.

Its much more likely you see something similar to the Stryker MSHORAD. General Dynamics actually showed off a similar system at CANSEC! That uses Moogs RIwP turret system.

My photos from CANSEC

That remains the most likely option over Skyranger, though I do love the system. Usually whatever GD proposed is usually the go-to. If they have a solution that fits, why spend the time integrating something else?

Of course we won't know exactly what's desired until some documents drop. Might be something completely different!

Q4. Have you had a chance to compare the AIP on the Ks III & 212CD yet with respect to Time underwater. There are differnt numbers floating around with new systems?

The truth is that no manufacturer is going to give you the accurate endurance. None. That is a closely guarded secret. I can say the KSS-III is higher, though out of respect for everyone and to not get myself in trouble I won't say numbers. Both have endurance of several weeks and fit the HLMR.

I do plan to go into details about the systems themselves soon though, so im not leaving it alone!

Q5. The Type 212 has been described as an "ambush" submarine silently lying in wait for Russian subs. What advantages does the 212 bring to the Pacific?

Understand that both the KSS-III and Type 212CD are products of different needs and philosophies. Both focus on different strengths, in this case the 212CD puts almost all its efforts into being as stealthy and quiet as possible.

Its not just about ambush. Its about survival. The Type 212CD is designed to operate in the shallow, tight waters of the Baltics, and the Littoral regions of the North Sea. That isn't just about submarines but also being survivable against a dense field of Russian Maritime Patrol Aircraft and Anti-Submarine Helicopters.

That means a lot of effort was taken to ensure they're as quiet and undetectable as possible. Thats where things like thr Diamond-Shaped hull are supposed come into play, the use of non-magnetic stainless steel.

A lot of it's value comes in what role you expect it to play. It is still an excellent asset in the littoral regions of the pacific, however it isn't optimized for prowling around the Open-Oceans, deep-diving nature of the Pacific. That is the domain of platforms like the KSS-III, at least in my opinion.

That doesn't mean it can't, but just as the KSS-III can also operate in the littoral regions of thr Baltics doesn't mean its optimized too. That's the thing about CPSP. There's a lot of requirements, a lot of difference environments we expect these subs to operate in, and both focus on different priorities.

The advantages it has as a stealth-optimized platform don't dissappear. It could easily act in complement to other assets like U.S. and future Australian SSN who are more optimized for operations in the wider pacific.

Strengths and weaknesses.

Q6. Can you expand on your comments about the possible capabilities for the P8

Not yet Sadly! Soon though. I can tease a bit, but even I am bound to secrecy and limits at times. I can say that we will be getting the latest technologies as they come online, and that's a surprising amount.

Q7. Any updates to what's happening at Suffield

Prescribed burning

Q8. Do you think that placing the Centuro II 120mm/45cal gun turret, on a LAV 6 could be an idea for the 2 light regiments of the 2nd and 5th CMBGs.

Interesting idea, although I dont think many would go for it. The trauma of MGS is still fresh, and while cool it doesn't exactly fit for our vision of the Light Brigade.

Q9. Any info on the next batch of RCD? Have even any long lead items been ordered?

We've slowly started, but the main priority right now is the first three. The next batch is likely to be very similar to the first, I wouldn't expect radical changes. Expanding the VLS cells is a big one.

We don't have a whole bunch of info though. The next batch is still being worked on in terms of what changes we might see. Still a ways out!

Q10. With the tutors' extension to 2030, what would be a replacement for the snowbirds? Same as the new trainer jet, or a fleet of jets that are going to be retired

The Tutors should be replaced by whatever our future FLIT is. I stand by that. It is the simplest option, the option most others go with. Sadly there is no way to tie that into the current FFLIT contract.

In an ideal world this would have been built in to the procurement. Sadly not. The Tutors have been on replacement since I was a toddler. I just want to see it get done by this point.

We have the tools in place to get this done, and I hope they're exercised. However im not confident until I see it.

Q11. Do you think we'll see any surprises in the upcoming budget?

Yes. Obviously I don't know fully what's in there. Defence will play a major role. We'll see the first bits of the Defence Industrial Strategy, and I know there is Space-related funding in there.

I don't know what's in there, but I feel confident we will get at least one or two surprises for defence. Expect Churchill to be in there too, maybe Grays Bay.

Q12. how do you find your sources outside government news releases (and has becoming more known helped in this)

As in for like press releases and such? A lot of people send me stuff, either their press releases or just news floating around. The more known I've become, the more news people send me to post!

A lot also comes down to just having the research skills. Info is hard to find until it isn't. Once you've mastered how to use search engines, tools, and archived you can achieve a surprisingly large amount.

Having a good network does help though, esepcially outside your country. There's always a barrier to foreign news, even when knowing how to break the system. (so to speak)

Having people who are in that cycle helps in lots of ways. Easier to gather info. A makeshift filtering system as well for trash news and info!

Information is out there for people willing to seek it out.

Q13. Any details on improvements to Cyclone availability?

Slowly improving. Several are now back to being operational, and the rest of the fleet is slowly joining them. Although it's likely not the last time we see a grounding like this.

I asked for numbers but sadly I wasn't allowed them!

Q14. With the decision to go with P-8s, is there room for bombardier-based aircraft in the CAF, or are they just not the best option in our use cases?

I think so. The Global is a great aircraft for a lot of specialized missions. It is highly likely we see a Global AEWC aircraft, if the government sticks to their promise. I also think theres room for other variants like a SIGINT variant, something more than the MAISR provides.

They're a great platform. We've already seen others take advantage of it, from SIGINT to Battlefield Communications, ISR and Electronic Warfare.

There's a world of potential that I think the Global offers, and I think we could benefit from things like a dedicated SIGINT aircraft or two. I would LOVE to see something like HADES.

Q15. Talk to me about the Utility Transport Aircraft Project. Is this just a Twin Otter replacement, or could we see a something different?

Project was put on hold for a reason. It isn't just a Pick-a-Twotter replacement project. There is examination at other platforms, primarily stuff like Valor, and if it could do the role better. The newer Twotter ain't the best for the Arctic. They have some issues with the new electronics and cockpit for operating up there.

That might be fixed, and I doubt Dehavilland wouldn't try. It could still end up just being new Twin Otters lol, however it isn't the only option.

Q16. Do you think this proposal from SAAB about a potential Gripen production line in Canada is a clue to which route the government is leaning towards?

There's been a push for Gripen internally before the review was even launched, however I don't see this as a tease for thr governments choice. I do see it as Saab building their case as best they can by bringing on Canada's major aerospace company into the fold.

Don't mistake promotion and pressure as policy.

Q17. Are the rumours true about Clearance Diver expanding their role and potentially being pulled into CANSOF?

Expansion? Yes.

CANSOF? I dont know there.

I dont have the details myself. I can certainly take a look into it. I haven't heard about CANSOF when it comes to this.

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