The CMMC Update

I REALLY debated skipping this discussion, but I'm the Corvette guy. I claim this title because I get asked about CMMC fairly regularly.

To those who might be confused, thr Naval Association of Canada held their Speakers Evening on January 20th, and among the many guests and things discussed, we got our first official look at CMMC.

To say that this was a jackpot is an understatement. We have had next to no official information about the project in the almost two years its been publicly known. We have references, and wants, but not anything really concrete.

This isn't a shock though, the project office is small, it's relatively new and unfunded. It's a small team just starting the work on identifying the requirements for what will be Canada's second tier combatants.

Keep in mind, the original project wasn't even a corvette, but instead was designed as an OPV, so there's been at least one major shift in the planning and expectations here.

The point is, this is big, really big. I have been working for months to get as much info on this project as possible, PDFs, government documents, and expending any source that I had, and the fact was that information was next to nothing.

So when something like this dropped? I was beyond ecstatic to finally get some solid information to share, some official look into the project that could hopefully solve a lot of the mysteries surrounding it.

Of course, it wasn't that easy.

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What we learned

Before we jump into my thoughts and such, let's go over what we actually learned about the project, whichnwas surprisingly quite a bit. The first thing I want to highlight is our first official look.

Our first look at the Canadian Multi-Mission Corvette

We have slides, two of them but that one is for later. Of course this is merely an early artist rendition of what the vessel might look like, but this is the first time we are seeing such a visual for the project.

It also confirms a lot of what we've seen talked about before, both with previous info on CMMC and what we see if the projects currently only proposal, the Vard Vigilance.

It isn't giving much, but we were lucky to get to hear the whole presentation, which I will link at the end. It is a great listen, and goes over several different navy projects that I was going to go over, guess that one is out the bag now! Sorry Forrest! I promise I'll go over the Navies plans for Autonomous systems eventually.

So what did we learn?

First, let's go over timelines. We have official confirmation, the Kingston-class is planned to be out of service by 2030, after the last of their hull certifications expire.

This was first revealed by Murray Brewster as an option last year, but this is the first we hear confirmation from official sources. If all lines up, there is a good chance the Kingstons will either be scrapped or sold off to another navy.

We also have a timeline for when we should see CMMC in service, the mid-2030s, which aligns with what I have previously been told, with CMMC to enter service alongside, or just before, the River-class in 2035.

For a project still in identification, that's a BIG ask. That gives a ten-year timelime for the project to:

• Be Approved

• Be Funded

• Release its RFI

• Figure out qualified suppliers

• Sign Contract

• Build the actual vessel

• Commision

All within that timeframe, which needless to say is EXTREMELY aggresive, even moreso than the CPSP timeline. It's also means that there will certainly be a capability gap between the last Kingston leaving service and the first CMMC entering.

This will mean that the already strained and old Halifax, along with the already booked up AOPV, will be needed to fill the gap left behind when the Kingston is gone.

I am not okay with either being run into the ground, but that is something for another day. I don't want to bog this with my opinions.

We also got some confirmation on its role. Make no mistake. The navy views CMMC as a warship, a combatant.

They make that very clear. This will not be a simple OPV, in fact, we now know that the navy intends for CMMC to have strike-length MK.41 in some form.

This is something that has been rumored for a year now, that the navy wanted something with VLS. They have always wanted this capability, but this is the first we are hearing it laid out, with confirmation that the navy wants the full deal here, not tactical-length as some have suggested.

This is a major step up in capability, especially when the navy also intends for CMMC to come complete with a full anti-air and anti-sub sensor suite, either hull mounted or with a containerized towed array.

The primary task of CMMC is fairly laid out as well, Continental Defence. This has also been fairly well known, even Admiral Topshee has mentioned wanting a second tier combatant to complement the ‘Expeditionary’ River-Class.

CMMC will provide another layer to NORADs already growing suite of assets to detect, track and engage with hostile threats, but also give the navy a new combatant tailor made to defend Canada's territorial waters.

Not only that, but the navy fully intends to take advantage of that Strike-length MK.41, with mentions of using CMMC, linked to either NORAD or another, more capable vessel for more high-end roles like Ballistic-Missile Defence, or even Anti-Space Warfare!

Sounds grand doesn't it? A bit out there? Absolutely it does, I understand that feeling wholeheartedly. You might be thinking what something like that looks like, right?

Well, lucky for you, we also have some official numbers, beyond what the shipyards have speculated in their reports. These are the first official nunbers that we have gotten for this project, and believe me, I was jumping for joy to hear them.

So, what does CMMC look like?! Well, this is where things get a bit fucky

See, above all, these requirements, while spectacular do paint out a fairly standard heavy Corvette, such as the MEKO-based Tamandere recently delivered to the Brazilian Navy.

CMMC falls in line with that, with an estimated size of ~75-100m, right in the territory of most of the common Corvette designs we see. The project has a hard limit of 105m at its largest. This was a bit expected, as it is what Halifax has room for without having to expand upon her berths.

They don't want to have to do that, which is fine, I understand that. There are plenty of designs, Meko, Sigma, Gowind, that all fit in those requirements.

But the project also has… expectations that honestly might be a death-blow to the project as a whole. The navy envisions CMMC as weighting just over 1000t and having a core crew of 40 people…

Under 2000 tons…

40-man crew…

Now, we have entered the realm beyond merely a white elephant, and part of the reason I've spent a lot of time debating if this info was credible or not, despite the official sources.

The second CMMC slide, detailing bith the timeline and high-level requirements

The navy also throws out the idea of another, medium-sized yard taking on the construction, such as a Point Hope or Ontario. This is apparently possible, despite the 1000t hard limit imposed on the NSS, and the fact Irving is supposed to have dibs on all combatants.

I've talked about these issues in my last CMMC post, and they still stand. Are there ways around it? Likely yes, depending on what you're willing to try and do, but it won't be an easy pathway.

How many does the navy want? They don't know yet. Cost? Also not discussed at this time. We will have to wait for those, but its likely we will see a minimum of eight, and from how its discussed, they are likely to be looking in the ten or more range.

Needlessly to say, that isn't the combination that I want to see discussed, and isn't the kind of presentation that leaves me hopeful for success.

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What's Right, Wrong and My Thoughts

Needless to say, these weren't all the requirements I have been expecting to come to light when the time came. Those who follow me, or talk to me, know that most of these were expected, and in turn, I assumed this meant a full-sized, 2500+ ton Corvette was on the horizon.

Between having a self-defence capability, full sensor suite, and VLS capabilities, I had assumed that it was a fairly clear pathway. I was wrong, very clearly, and I will admit that my speculation was grossly wrong.

On that though, I doubt this was the combination people had in mind. We have a 1500 ton Corvette, below fifty-man crew that will be undertaking the full range of Corvette capabilities? I would even go as far as to say we might be looking at a light frigate suite even.

If anyone is familiar with the Itchy and Scratchy focus group, this situation will feel very familiar…

Let alone the issues of a smaller, unequiped and inexperienced yard trying to deliver these vessels in what will inevitably be a likely five-year timeline, and that is being gracious given the project is still in identification.

Let alone the fact that we have to fit this entire combat suite into a vessel likely to be 80m in length and 1500 tons, while also providing ample room to run the autonomous systems they plan to operate, I assume all at the same time.

One might point to Vigilance, and it's very similar list of capabilities and size, as the seemingly hand chosen design here, plucked out and written in for this, but even the current Vigilance design.might lack all the topping and fillings to do as demanded here, certainly it is asking a lot.

I've talked about scope creep before, and I can't find a better concept than this. Why do we do this? Lord knows, I have asked. Is it to throw the smaller yards a bone? Can we not crew them? Are we worried about funding? Is it some combination of all of these?

Because surely there is something that is pushing these self-restrictions, that or the navy is taking a very risky approach, and truely believez that technology has progressed enough to make such a concept reality.

I don't want to dismiss, I truely don't. I would love to see a vessel like this succeed, especially if we can pump out a large number of them, above the six to eight I've speculated before.

A true replacement to the old Flower-class? Cheap, modular, and able to fill a mountain of roles? Who wouldn't want a vessel like that, and maybe that's what they're going for.

Maybe the solution is to focus, like Vigilance, on containerized platforms, mixed and matched to fit the mission requirements of the vessel, from MK.70 to containerized ASW equipment.

But I worry, dearly. I am worried about seeing such a concept fail, to dream to big, to soon and risk losing this capability all together. I have said before and I will say it again - we only have one shot here.

If this messes up and fails then we ar potentially looking at losing out on what is to be not just our second tier but our only Kingston replacement, unless the Orca replacement goes grand as well.

I apologize is this seems disorganized and chaotic. I am still wrapping my head around everything, and wanted to get something out before the information was everywhere on the web.

Perhaps I shall have my opinion changed once I calm a bit. That's why I don't want to go to deep into analysis right now, I'm not my best worked up!

I am happy to see progress. I am happy to see work being done. I am happy to get real info, but I worry, I am untrusting of this concept as it's laid out.

I want to be wrong. I want to be shocked. I want to see this be a success, I'm sure we all do. This sound amazing on paper.

But you can put anything on paper, be imaginative. Sadly, it doesn't work that way, and I cant think of nothing worse than CMMC remaining just a few pieces of paper.

I have trust. I am going to be optimistic and hopeful. Time will tell if things stay this way, or if the project shifts as it dives deeper through identifying its wants and needs.

Time will tell.