Let's talk about CPSP

So, Noah made some controversy yesterday.

For those who might have missed what happened on Twitter, the CPSP RFI officially closed and with it a new amendment was quickly released. I say that calmly, but this amendment was dropped quite literally at the last second.

So what is the controversy here? Well usually I save most of the project updates for the newsletter, and never speak when an RFI closes but this was different. This amendment had a special exemption put in place that might signal the projects end.

Yesterday's amendment confirmed that one-on-one meetings will not be proceeding. This is a major shift in the project, and a major exemption that confirms to me that the project is quickly moving to an awarding.

Confused? Let me explain. When you have a project like this, these meetings play a vital role between the RFI and the future setup of the project.

These meetings allow suppliers to ask information, share additional information, and gauge what CAF might want after reviewing responses.

For CAF it's the same. These allow them to ask questions and engage suppliers directly about their solutions. They form a vital part of crafting the future RFP/ITQ

These meetings can be forgone for a number of reasons. This can be due to changing demands, delays in the process, and lack of need, or, and this is where we're going, already having a preferred supplier.

A project of this scope and size, full of competitors like TKMS, whom have very convoluted plans to fulfill the requirements, are exactly the people you would want to have these meetings with.

For those of you around, I've warned that the original 2028 award date had been moved up, and the navy wanted a contract signed by the end of 2026. This still holds true, but I believe that this timeline is moving for quicker than expected.

For a good year, we've known that Hanwha and the KSS-III was the frontrunner to win. While the Type-212CD has a lot of fans, and is considered the more advanced technologically, the fact that it relied on an unrealistic delivery plan, has yet to be put into service, and offered a variant to different from the base likely put it to over the edge for the navy to like.

Indeed, Topshees recent comments on expectations and promises should be remembered. It's easy to promise these things without cost or details, but when push comes to shove, we can't afford to put that trust in.

Given it's the only example truely in service, and fits our requirements, I can safely say that we might be heading to a possibility, even if still very slim in my opinion, for rare sole-source. Something that I would usually call myself insane for, but I think the slim potential is there now.

That depends greatly though on the navies own desires. We are highly likely to still see a ITQ published first, almost a garuntee. Those of you who remember the P8 might see the similarities in this purchase to CMMA.

I am confident we will see something big this year, maybe even an award depending on the speed of things, and this is a major sign of that. I think at the least, we’ll see an award by the end of next year.

Although if you want to know more about CPSP and the KSS-III, I did a recent thread on Twitter!