Oh also: You're expecting a contract award in 2025, or just an announcement of a preferred bid/selected design? That sounds very fast (given our history), but I'd love to see them get it done.
Methinks the proposal to award time on this project is going to shatter everyone’s preconceived notions on Canada procurement.
This can be good or bad. If it goes poorly it’s just going to ensure that nothing else moves this rapidly again. If it goes well and Hanwah or TKMS can meet or exceed the deliverables then it may signal a shift in procurement strategy moving forward.
The key in this whole procurement and fast tracking it will be to minimize changes to the parent design, if we start Canadianizing or forcing different systems on the project then we are just looking for issues and cost overruns.
This is a very big test on our procurement system, and make no mistake it’s a choice. We are putting ourselves on the clock and testing what we can do and how we can do it. This is as much a trial of a new way to handle these projects as it is us gaining a capability.
This won’t be very modified. We ain’t saving anything from the Vicky’s, it just ain’t worth it. This isn’t like CMS-330 and shit. The modifications you’ll see done are all security related, but I’ve talked about that elsewhere lol.
I’ll be straight up, I don’t trust TKMS here. I don’t trust the timelines, and I think they only have themselves to blame. We have zero real confirmation that either Germany or Norway would give up slots outside ambassador talk, and we have no clear timeline for when our order would be complete.
We have the largest single order of subs, outside the Aussies, in decades for a western yard. This is unprecedented for how large it is, and they haven’t been treating it as big as it is.
As I said before, complacency and arrogance is a killer. This could have been a contest, but Hanwha was allowed to get the jump.
To me TKMS’ order book is filled and they are pushing for more procurement from more countries. It’s not the partnership I would be looking for.
I think the Hanwah option is the right option and I am very confident in their yards ability to scale and deliver what they promise. We need partnerships outside of our very close historic allies and the Koreans have so many opportunities for other systems I would love to see us jump on board. We would also be first on the books for an external order from them and can likely throw some weight into getting boats as soon as we can reasonably staff them.
Throw the CAF crypto systems in and whatever else link systems are needed and be done with it. Setup Canadian manufacturer of the weapons systems as well, I’m sure the Koreans would gladly get on board with this, even if it only means they have a production facility for theirselves away from the range of the North Koreans…
Norway and Germany have indicated that they're willing to have Canadian submarines 'jump the queue' a bit to meet the delivery timeline, if Canada selects the 212CD. I don't think they'd have any trouble delivering a submarine before 2033. That said it lacks the land-attack missile capability in the HLMRs and I don't know if it meets the range requirement. The KSS III certainly seems to fit the bill, but I have no idea what complexities are involved with trying to integrate all those subsystems that we have 0 familiarity with when all documenation and interfaces are in Korean. Maybe that's not a big deal at all, but I'd be curious to learn how they assess that risk.
The problem with the Germans is that it is currently an empty promise, until the Norwegians and Germans confirm they’re willing to give up slots, and than we ask how many are they willing to give up? It’s no longer about first delivery, but about how quickly they can be delivered, and with Poland leaning TKMS, renewed order from Singapore, and Morocco leaning, the order books fill fast.
I have no doubt they will try. This is the single largest sub order in decades for someone like TKMS, with a major country willing to throw money at development as well. That should mean a lot, but TKMS has also been a bit half-assing this competition.
Similarly, it also depends on how we view the 212CDE, and if it similar enough to the CD to be classified in the same category. Topshee recently called out this very concept about expectations and promises, and I think we need to take that to heart ourselves.
As for the Koreans, they’re been working the last two years with Babcock to mitigate some of these issues, keeping in mind that several subsystems between the Bickys and KSS-III, such as the weapon handling system remain the same, the navy has made it clear. We ain’t saving anything from the Vicky’s. It just isn’t worth it to save things like the CMS from it.
Hanwha did one thing right. They took us seriously and got to work a long time ago getting shit prepared. They jumped on forming partnerships, and started work with Babcock on mitigating any issues.
Complacency is a killer, and Hanwha took advantage of the established players being off their game and waiting for official announcements. It tells a lot that Topshee has been to Korea several times, been to the shipyards, and now isn’t taking part in individual meeting where you want to ask TKMS these questions.
I talked about it on Twitter lol, those fucks will promise grandma if it puts them ever so closer to winning. Now we just gotta hope they weren’t hyping themselves up.
Thanks Noah, I misunderstood the proposal and thought we were after the 212CD (exactly the same as the German and Norweigan boats) rather than the 'still on the drawing board' 212 CD E. That's a lot more risk that likely would not fit on our timeline.
The CDE is what’s been discussed. I don’t think the navy would go with the base CD, that would be a major disadvantage to TKMS here. I don’t know enough about their proposal, which I assume is similar to the Dutch but might not be, to talk about commonality.
I think the reason why the Koreans have the leg up is that although the Germans can potentially get us a submarine by 2033 I think the Koreans can get us 2-3 by then and they can for sure deliver all 12 before the Germans.
Oh also: You're expecting a contract award in 2025, or just an announcement of a preferred bid/selected design? That sounds very fast (given our history), but I'd love to see them get it done.
Preferred supplier. We like to announce preferred suppliers now before the contract is signed.
Methinks the proposal to award time on this project is going to shatter everyone’s preconceived notions on Canada procurement.
This can be good or bad. If it goes poorly it’s just going to ensure that nothing else moves this rapidly again. If it goes well and Hanwah or TKMS can meet or exceed the deliverables then it may signal a shift in procurement strategy moving forward.
The key in this whole procurement and fast tracking it will be to minimize changes to the parent design, if we start Canadianizing or forcing different systems on the project then we are just looking for issues and cost overruns.
This is a very big test on our procurement system, and make no mistake it’s a choice. We are putting ourselves on the clock and testing what we can do and how we can do it. This is as much a trial of a new way to handle these projects as it is us gaining a capability.
This won’t be very modified. We ain’t saving anything from the Vicky’s, it just ain’t worth it. This isn’t like CMS-330 and shit. The modifications you’ll see done are all security related, but I’ve talked about that elsewhere lol.
I’ll be straight up, I don’t trust TKMS here. I don’t trust the timelines, and I think they only have themselves to blame. We have zero real confirmation that either Germany or Norway would give up slots outside ambassador talk, and we have no clear timeline for when our order would be complete.
We have the largest single order of subs, outside the Aussies, in decades for a western yard. This is unprecedented for how large it is, and they haven’t been treating it as big as it is.
As I said before, complacency and arrogance is a killer. This could have been a contest, but Hanwha was allowed to get the jump.
To me TKMS’ order book is filled and they are pushing for more procurement from more countries. It’s not the partnership I would be looking for.
I think the Hanwah option is the right option and I am very confident in their yards ability to scale and deliver what they promise. We need partnerships outside of our very close historic allies and the Koreans have so many opportunities for other systems I would love to see us jump on board. We would also be first on the books for an external order from them and can likely throw some weight into getting boats as soon as we can reasonably staff them.
Throw the CAF crypto systems in and whatever else link systems are needed and be done with it. Setup Canadian manufacturer of the weapons systems as well, I’m sure the Koreans would gladly get on board with this, even if it only means they have a production facility for theirselves away from the range of the North Koreans…
Norway and Germany have indicated that they're willing to have Canadian submarines 'jump the queue' a bit to meet the delivery timeline, if Canada selects the 212CD. I don't think they'd have any trouble delivering a submarine before 2033. That said it lacks the land-attack missile capability in the HLMRs and I don't know if it meets the range requirement. The KSS III certainly seems to fit the bill, but I have no idea what complexities are involved with trying to integrate all those subsystems that we have 0 familiarity with when all documenation and interfaces are in Korean. Maybe that's not a big deal at all, but I'd be curious to learn how they assess that risk.
The problem with the Germans is that it is currently an empty promise, until the Norwegians and Germans confirm they’re willing to give up slots, and than we ask how many are they willing to give up? It’s no longer about first delivery, but about how quickly they can be delivered, and with Poland leaning TKMS, renewed order from Singapore, and Morocco leaning, the order books fill fast.
I have no doubt they will try. This is the single largest sub order in decades for someone like TKMS, with a major country willing to throw money at development as well. That should mean a lot, but TKMS has also been a bit half-assing this competition.
Similarly, it also depends on how we view the 212CDE, and if it similar enough to the CD to be classified in the same category. Topshee recently called out this very concept about expectations and promises, and I think we need to take that to heart ourselves.
As for the Koreans, they’re been working the last two years with Babcock to mitigate some of these issues, keeping in mind that several subsystems between the Bickys and KSS-III, such as the weapon handling system remain the same, the navy has made it clear. We ain’t saving anything from the Vicky’s. It just isn’t worth it to save things like the CMS from it.
Hanwha did one thing right. They took us seriously and got to work a long time ago getting shit prepared. They jumped on forming partnerships, and started work with Babcock on mitigating any issues.
Complacency is a killer, and Hanwha took advantage of the established players being off their game and waiting for official announcements. It tells a lot that Topshee has been to Korea several times, been to the shipyards, and now isn’t taking part in individual meeting where you want to ask TKMS these questions.
I for one welcome SK kit. It's well made, cheap and they're more than willing to build factories for those sweet, sweet jobs.
I talked about it on Twitter lol, those fucks will promise grandma if it puts them ever so closer to winning. Now we just gotta hope they weren’t hyping themselves up.
Thanks Noah, I misunderstood the proposal and thought we were after the 212CD (exactly the same as the German and Norweigan boats) rather than the 'still on the drawing board' 212 CD E. That's a lot more risk that likely would not fit on our timeline.
The CDE is what’s been discussed. I don’t think the navy would go with the base CD, that would be a major disadvantage to TKMS here. I don’t know enough about their proposal, which I assume is similar to the Dutch but might not be, to talk about commonality.
I think the reason why the Koreans have the leg up is that although the Germans can potentially get us a submarine by 2033 I think the Koreans can get us 2-3 by then and they can for sure deliver all 12 before the Germans.